Published: 2024-09-05
Development of Econometric Models for Financial Performance Forecasting in Companies
DOI: 10.35870/ijmsit.v4i2.3146
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Abstract
This study develops an econometric model to predict corporate financial performance. The goal is to improve the accuracy of predictions by analysing relevant economic and financial variables. The model combines statistical and econometric analysis to identify significant input variables such as asset turnover, firm size, capital structure, and liquidity. The study also highlights the importance of external factors, such as environmental policies and knowledge management, that affect corporate financial performance. Using ARIMA and VAR models, the study shows that selecting the correct parameters, such as the number of lags, is critical to improving prediction accuracy. The developed model is evaluated based on RMSE, MAD, and MAPE metrics, which show that the econometric model offers more accurate predictions than the classical statistical model. These results contribute significantly to understanding corporate financial performance dynamics and can be a reliable tool in strategic decision-making across various industry sectors.
Keywords
Finance ; Econometric Model ; Arima ; Var ; Financial Forecasting
Article Information
This article has been peer-reviewed and published in the International Journal of Management Science and Information Technology. The content is available under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.
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Issue: Vol. 4 No. 2 (2024)
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Section: Articles
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Published: %750 %e, %2024
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License: CC BY 4.0
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Copyright: © 2024 Authors
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DOI: 10.35870/ijmsit.v4i2.3146
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Adi Nugroho
Faculty of Social Sciences and Teacher Training, Development Economics Study Program, Universitas Nani Bili Nusantara Sorong, Indonesia
Maria Apriyane Patty
Faculty of Social Sciences and Teacher Training, Development Economics Study Program, Universitas Nani Bili Nusantara Sorong, Indonesia
Andriani Karto
Faculty of Social Sciences and Teacher Training, Development Economics Study Program, Universitas Nani Bili Nusantara Sorong, Indonesia
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