Published: 2025-10-01

Analisis Forecasting Pengisian Tabung Gas Menggunakan Metode Time Series Pada Stasiun Pengisian dan Pengangkutan Bulk Elpiji (SPPBE) PT. Sinar Energi Sulawesi

DOI: 10.35870/jemsi.v11i5.5018

Muh. Niswar, Muh. Tamrin, Haslindah Haslindah, Pratiwi Ramlan
  • Muh. Niswar: Universitas Muhammadiyah Sidenreng Rappang
  • Muh. Tamrin: Universitas Muhammadiyah Sidenreng Rappang
  • Haslindah Haslindah: Universitas Muhammadiyah Sidenreng Rappang
  • Pratiwi Ramlan: Universitas Muhammadiyah Sidenreng Rappang
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Abstract

This study aims to analyze the gas cylinder refilling needs at SPPBE PT. Sinar Energi Sulawesi using the time series forecasting method of Exponential Smoothing. The background of this research is the importance of accurate demand estimation to support efficient and timely LPG distribution. The data used were historical refilling records from 2022 to 2024. The analysis was conducted using R Studio to develop a predictive model based on seasonal patterns and historical trends. The forecasting results predicted refill volumes of 552.27 units (June), 531.57 units (July), and 573.58 units (August) in 2025. The model showed high accuracy with MAD of 13.31, MSE of 229.09, and MAPE of 2.34%. The visualization of forecasting results clearly illustrated seasonal fluctuations and prediction confidence intervals. These findings contribute significantly to operational efficiency and corporate decision-making. Therefore, the Exponential Smoothing method can be relied upon as a strategic tool in data-driven energy distribution planning. This study also recommends regular updates of historical data to maintain forecast accuracy.

Keywords

Distribution ; Exponential Smoothing ; Forecasting

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How to Cite

Niswar, M., Tamrin, M., Haslindah, H., & Ramlan, P. (2025). Analisis Forecasting Pengisian Tabung Gas Menggunakan Metode Time Series Pada Stasiun Pengisian dan Pengangkutan Bulk Elpiji (SPPBE) PT. Sinar Energi Sulawesi. JEMSI (Jurnal Ekonomi, Manajemen, Dan Akuntansi), 11(5), 4773-4782. https://doi.org/10.35870/jemsi.v11i5.5018
Article Information

This article has been peer-reviewed and published in the JEMSI (Jurnal Ekonomi, Manajemen, dan Akuntansi). The content is available under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.

  • Issue: Vol. 11 No. 5 (2025)

  • Section: Articles

  • Published: %750 %e, %2025

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Author Biographies
Muh. Niswar
Google Scholar ResearchGate ORCID

Bisnis Digital, Fakultas Ekonomi Dan Bisnis, Universitas Muhammadiyah Sidenreng Rappang, Jl. Angkatan 45 No. 1A Lt. Salo, Indonesia.

Muh. Tamrin
Google Scholar ResearchGate ORCID

Bisnis Digital, Fakultas Ekonomi Dan Bisnis, Universitas Muhammadiyah Sidenreng Rappang, Jl. Angkatan 45 No. 1A Lt. Salo, Indonesia.

Haslindah Haslindah
Google Scholar ResearchGate ORCID

Bisnis Digital, Fakultas Ekonomi Dan Bisnis, Universitas Muhammadiyah Sidenreng Rappang, Jl. Angkatan 45 No. 1A Lt. Salo, Indonesia.

Pratiwi Ramlan
Google Scholar ResearchGate ORCID

Bisnis Digital, Fakultas Ekonomi Dan Bisnis, Universitas Muhammadiyah Sidenreng Rappang, Jl. Angkatan 45 No. 1A Lt. Salo, Indonesia.

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